Most online action takes place during the NFL season, which is just about one month away and many online sportsbooks have already posted their week 1 lines. Here we will talk about trends in NFL betting and how Pay Per Head services can help you identify sharp lines.
Generally bettors like betting on favorites. Typically, they’re the better of the two teams on the field that day, and bettors like to know that they are betting on the better team.
Sharp Lines are designed to offer the best NFL betting experience. It is considered to be sharp money when “a wager initiates a line change regardless of the amount bet. Identifying smart money is certainly one important aspect of being a sharp NFL bettor, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. There is a lot more to finding sharp bets than just seeing when lines move.
In fact, often times, when lines move, squares are forcing those lines to move, particularly around key numbers. Keep a close eye on a football game with a betting line of 4.5 or 5. There isn’t all that much difference, mathematically speaking, between a four-point game and a six-point game in the NFL in particular, and bettors who are willing to bet -5 will be just as willing to bet -5.5. This is where the sharps can strike, though.
If over 65% of bettors are on one side, especially if that 65% side is the favored side, and the line either is staying stagnant or is moving in the direction of the 35% side, there is a good chance that the 35% side is the sharp one.
The New York Jets opened as 2.5 point underdogs and are receiving just 23% of spread bets, yet the line has dropped to +1, indicating early sharp money on this home dog.
What Line Moves Tells Us
Once sportsbooks release their opening lines, the betting public almost immediately reveals which side of the number they like more and moves them accordingly. But while these early line moves may show where the public money is initially going, it does not obviously tell the whole story until we can see where the closing odds end up.
It is important to realize that a lot of movement can happen on sporting events, especially with football since there are so many days in between games, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to get action on different numbers.
The goal when following line moves is to always try to get the best of the number you are looking for, whether you are interested in betting on the favorite or the underdog. That can be much easier said than done though because the opening number may be the lowest you will get on a favorite before the public hammers it and makes it too high.
When it comes to wagering on any sport, bettors always want to know where the sharp money is going. The value of betting against the public has been discussed for years, as this practice has been incredibly profitable.
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