Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller are close friends, but will be foes when the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals resume a three-game series at Busch Stadium.
Kelly was traded to the Red Sox last week in the deal that sent John Lackey to the Gateway City and will face Miller and the Cardinals tonight. Kelly went 2-2 with a 4.37 earned run average in seven starts with the Cardinals and is ready for his Boston debut.
The task at hand is trying to stop a three-game losing streak for the Red Sox and Kelly has struggled in his past two outings. He allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs on July 25, then was touched for four runs across five innings of a 12-1 defeat at San Diego one week ago.
Kelly, a right-hander, was 1-2 in five road starts for the Cardinals and has given up 16 runs in his past four trips to the mound. St. Louis drafted him in the third round in 2009. In 35 games (20 starts) at Busch Stadium, Kelly is 9-7 with a 2.90 ERA.
Boston needs to provide Kelly with run support and suffered a 3-2 loss in Tuesday's series opener. Jon Jay stroked an RBI single off Red Sox reliever Junichi Tazawa and Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal shut Boston down in the ninth for his MLB-leading 35th save.
Rubby De La Rosa pitched well in the no-decision for the Red Sox, charged with just a run in six innings for the no-decision. Yoenis Cespedes, who was acquired from Oakland last week, recorded three hits and a run scored. Boston has lost 11 of its last 13 games and opened its eight-game road trip on a sour note. It has lost six of seven road games and is 22-32 away from Fenway Park.
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Here are the top stats to know about Wednesday’s starters.
Joe Kelly (2-2, 4.37 ERA)
Kelly will make his first start for the Boston Red Sox after being dealt by the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline last Thursday. Kelly, a 26-year-old righty, posted a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts from 2012-13 but had an ERA north of four in seven starts with the Cardinals this season.
Kelly’s struggles in 2014 start with the fastball.
In the two previous seasons, Kelly threw 24 percent of his fastballs up in the zone and allowed a .281 batting average. Thirty-two percent of Kelly’s fastballs have been up in the zone this season and opponents are teeing off at a .349 clip (MLB average is .273 in 2014). His groundball percentage on fastballs dropped 10 percent as a result.
While the heater has been a problem for Kelly, his curveball continues to improve.
Kelly’s curveball usage has increased in each of the last three seasons. His batting average allowed on curveballs has decreased from a generous .346 in 2012 to a stingy .146 in 2014 (MLB average is .222 in 2014).
Shelby Miller (8-8, 4.14 ERA)
Miller’s ERA is up over a full run this year compared to last while his strikeout and walk percentages are heading in the wrong direction.
Miller ranked 19th out of 81 qualified starters in strikeout percentage with a below average walk percentage in 2013. Miller’s strikeout percentage ranks 79th out of 95 qualified starters while his walk percentage is the highest in baseball this season.
Those trends have put Miller in the bottom tier of the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Miller's 1.47 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the third-worst in Major League Baseball this season. Only Jarred Cosart (Miami Marlins) and Roberto Hernandez (Philadelphia Phillies) have been worse among 95 qualified starters.
