The Kansas City Chiefs are -1.5 favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Also for the match, the over/under is set at 53.5. This line is a surprise to many, since the 49ers are coming off a 17 point thrashing dealt to the Packers.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off an 11 point triumph over the seemingly unstoppable Tennessee Titans. Las Vegas seems to think that if the Chiefs can stop Derrick Henry, then they can stop anyone. The Chiefs also may have a leg up with their former MVP quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, compared to San Fran’s Garoppolo.
One reason that the Chiefs were chosen as the favorite could be related to the fact that they did not pick up any new injuries in the AFC Championship game. Andy Reid’s team was riddled with injuries this year, especially on the offensive line. However, going into the biggest match of the year with the same 52 men that won the AFC Championship is fantastic.
The Chiefs also have a top-five quarterback in the league with one of the best receiving cores. The Chiefs will look to dominate on the ground, to attack the 49ers weaker spot.
The 49ers defense has let up the second least yards per match, and the least passing YPG.
However, the defense put up a very pedestrian 17th best in the league for allowing rushing yards. Yet the Chiefs don’t have as big of a leg up on this front as they would like. The Chiefs only posted the 23rd best rushing offense in the league during the regular season. Therefore, we should see some more movement in the pocket for Mahomes, and QB scrambles should be seen.
There is yet another glaring statistical place where the odds for the game could be wrong. The 49ers have the 4th ranked offense in the league this year for YPG, while the Chiefs have another poor standing at 17th least allowed YPG.
The 49ers have the Chiefs matched at every position on the field. However, there are two exceptions. The Chiefs have by and large a stronger receiving core and quarterback. Yet, the 49ers rely on their All-Pro tight end, George Kittle, to reel in most of their passes. The largest source of anxiety for the 49ers surrounds Jimmy Garoppolo, and if he can perform up to par with Patrick Mahomes.
