Whether you run a bookie business or you are on the other side of the fence, getting in the betting action everyone should understand how lines move, and more importantly, how they can profit from them in either direction.
This is a very important part of betting, since understanding the mechanics about how a pay per head line moves in the days or weeks before a game actually starts can be the source of much of your profit.
After bookies release their opening lines at sportsbooks, the betting public almost immediately reveals which side of the number they like more and moves them accordingly. So the first thing about line moves is they aren’t actually a result of a statistical study of the two teams involved, or anything similar. In fact, lines are designed to elicit equal betting action on each side.
The reason for this is simple: if a bookie’s action is split right down the middle with equal amounts of action taking each side, then the bookie is able to profit by virtue of the vig that they are collecting on each bet they take. Just as importantly, this means that they are able to do so in a relatively risk-free environment. When you are the bookie, your goal isn’t to make as much money as possible, but to risk as little money as possible. Having equal action on both sides, assuming your clients will pay you back, is going to give you the best chance of doing this, and it brings us to our next point.
When you see a top player on one team get injured during practice or otherwise have to sit out for a game, there is no doubt that it changes the odds of the game, but the shifting on lines in response to this change isn’t actually done to reflect the shifting odds, but rather the shifting betting patterns of those who are putting money on the game. Since the player is assumed to have a major impact on the game, lines-makers need to shift the odds being set to incentivize betters to continue taking the other side of the bet. Without a shift in the odds, you would have disproportionate action on one side, something that can cause huge losses for a bookie.
At times, you may see a line move for seemingly no reason, and many times this is the result of a “sharp” bettor taking one side of the action. Since betting on sports can easily become a team effort, people who believe that the bettor has “special” information or that they are better informed about which side to bet on will inevitably start to pile on that same side of the bet. This forces lines-makers to shift the odds when the sharp is seen betting, or soon after when followers start to take the same action.
These three principles of line moves helps to have a better understanding of one of the fundamentals sports betting. Try our superior Pay Per Head Sportsbook? Sign Up Today and Get 2 Weeks Free.
